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By Ruy Teixeira

The Mountain West —Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah —has develop into the hot swing sector in American politics. All indicators element to those states, in particular Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, being an important within the 2012 election. regrettably, the increase of this area has been underreported within the media, and lots of political observers have merely the main superficial realizing of the profound fiscal, political, and social alterations that proceed to reshape the Mountain West. America's New Swing sector is the remedy.Led by way of bestselling writer and political analyst Ruy Teixeira, a skilled workforce of students assembled through the Brookings Mountain West software (housed on the college of Nevada–Las Vegas) provides the proof and the narrative worthwhile for knowing what's taking place during this sector and why it's so important.Contents 1. advent and Overview2. America's New Swing sector: The Political Demography and Geography of the Mountain West3. Metropolitan balloting styles within the Mountain West: the recent and outdated Political Heartlands4. Hispanics, Race, and the altering Political panorama of the U.S. Mountain West5. The Political Attitudes of the Millennial iteration within the Mountain West6. The Mountain West this day: A local Survey7. Reapportionment and Redistricting within the Mountain WestContributors comprise Karlyn Bowman (American company Institute), David Damore(University of Nevada–Las Vegas (UNLV), William Frey (Brookings Institution), Scott Keeter (Pew examine Center), Robert E. Lang (Brookings, UNLV, and the Lincy Institute), Tom Sanchez (Virginia Tech University), and Ruy Teixeira (Century beginning and the heart for American Progress).

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8 Obama carried young (18- to 29-year-old) voters by a 2-point margin, a very modest showing compared with his margins for the nation and in most states among this group. He also carried every age group except for seniors, doing best among 50- to 64-year-olds, whom he carried 60–38 percent. It is instructive to dig a little deeper into the exit poll data to compare the white working-class vote with the white college-graduate vote. indd 30 1/24/12 5:38 PM America’s New Swing Region 31 Table C-3.

He also carried all age groups, except young voters, whom he lost by 4 points. 3 McCain also did well among white college graduates, whom he carried by 17 points, substantially above his nationwide performance. McCain’s support among Arizona’s white working-class voters varied by region. Using the exit poll regions, which match fairly closely with the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas but include a third region (Rest of State) that roughly combines our South, North, and West regions, we find that McCain’s white working-class advantage was greatest in the Rest of State region (51 points), far less in the Phoenix area (13 points), and even less in the Tucson area (8 points).

America’s New Swing Region 19 Table B-2B. S. decennial census. indd 19 1/24/12 5:38 PM 20 W illiam H. F rey and R uy T eixeira Table B-3. Arizona Voting in the 2008 Presidential Election for Selected Demographic Groups Percent Group Democratic Republican Democratic-Republican White Black Hispanic Other 40 90 56 55 59 9 41 40 –19 81 15 15 Men Women 45 45 53 54 –8 –9 White men White women 39 41 60 58 –21 –17 High school dropout High school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate 46 43 48 43 45 53 56 51 55 55 –7 –13 –3 –12 –10 White non-college White college 39 41 60 58 –21 –17 18–29 30–39 40–49 50–64 65+ 52 48 40 44 43 48 49 59 54 56 4 –1 –19 –10 –3 All 45 53 –8 Source: Authors’ analysis of data from the 2008 National Election Pool Arizona state exit poll.

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